Desk Correspondent , New  Delhi — The southwest monsoon is projected to arrive over Kerala on May 26, nearly six days ahead of its normal June 1 onset, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). While this early arrival offers initial hope for India’s vast agricultural sector—where nearly half of the farmland lacks irrigation—the IMD has nonetheless forecast a below-normal monsoon for 2026. Total seasonal rainfall is expected to be just 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA) due to a rapidly developing El Niño pattern in the Pacific Ocean.

Currently, favorable conditions are allowing the monsoon to advance over the south Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea, bringing heavy rainfall forecasts to the southern peninsula and northeast India. However, climate experts warn that an early onset does not guarantee a bountiful season. The progression of rainfall depends entirely on subsequent atmospheric surges and low-pressure systems. Meanwhile, northwest and central India continue to battle severe, oppressive heatwave conditions.

The primary concern for the latter half of the season is El Niño, which warming trends suggest has an 82% chance of emerging between May and July. Historically linked to weaker monsoons and droughts in India, a strong El Niño could severely impact crop yields, reservoir levels, and rural incomes. Because the country relies on the June–September monsoon for 70% of its annual rainfall, authorities are closely monitoring the Pacific temperatures, which scientists warn could peak into a "very strong" event by autumn.