A senior Taiwanese military officer has warned in Poland that if Ukraine falls to Russia, it could embolden China to take aggressive action against Taiwan.

Taiwan has already been under heightened pressure from China over the past five years, facing not only military drills but also “grey zone” tactics — such as cyberattacks and sabotage of undersea cables — designed to exert control without direct confrontation.

Speaking at an international security forum in Warsaw, the officer remarked that a Russian victory over Ukraine would send the message to Beijing that the use of force can succeed, thus lowering the barrier for military escalation toward Taiwan.

The warning comes amid rising concern in Asia about the balance of power and the role of deterrence. Analysts note that Taiwan regards Ukraine’s struggle as a cautionary tale: if democratic nations fail to respond decisively, it may weaken global norms against territorial aggression.